Photovoltaic panels to be exported by 2025

The world will almost completely rely on China for the supply of key building blocks for solar panel production through 2025. Based on manufacturing capacity under construction, China’s share of global polysilicon, ingot and wafer production will soon reach almost 95%.

India's solar module exports to the US and Europe will likely to peak in 2025 and experience a decline starting from 2026 as domestic manufacturing plants will be operational in these regions.

About 560 gigawatts direct current (GW dc) of photovoltaic (PV) installations are projected for 2024, up about a third from 2023. The five leading solar markets in 2023 kept pace or increased PV installation capacity in the first half of 2024, with China installing more than 100 GW dc and India installing more solar in the first half of 2024 .

India’s solar photovoltaic (PV) module exports to the United States of America (the U.S.) are likely to keep rising for another couple of years before stagnating from 2025 and declining from 2027, a new joint report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and JMK Research & Analytics finds.

EIA projects the percentage of U.S. electric capacity additions from solar will grow from 46% in 2022 (18 GWac) to 54% in 2023 (31 GWac), 63% in 2024 (44 GWac), and 71% in 2025 (51 GWac). Other analysts’ projections are lower, with a median value of 33 GWdc in 2023, growing to 36 GWdc in 2024 and 40 GWdc in 2025.

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6 FAQs about [Photovoltaic panels to be exported by 2025]

Will India's solar PV module exports keep rising?

Why did PV module exports increase 16 times in 2023?

JMK Research added that the PV module exports from India to the US had grown exponentially, up 16 times in 2023 compared to 2022, due to ongoing investigations into module imports from Southeast Asian countries in the US.

Will Indian solar PV module exports suffer a period of stagnation?

In the backdrop of huge capacities likely to be set up in the U.S. under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Indian solar PV module exports to the U.S. may experience a period of stagnation from 2025 and decline from 2027.

How many GW DC of photovoltaics are installed in 2023?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that in 2023, 407–446 gigawatts direct current (GW dc) of photovoltaics (PV) was installed globally, bringing cumulative PV installs to 1.6 terawatts direct current (TW dc). China continues to dominate the global market, representing ~60% of 2023 installs, up 120% year-over-year (y/y).

How many solar modules were imported in 2023?

U.S. PV Imports According to U.S. Census data, 55.6 GW dc of modules and 3.7 GW dc of cells were imported in 2023, an increase of 87% y/y and 46% y/y, respectively. In Q1 2024, PV module imports held relatively steady for the third straight quarter at 15.2 GW dc.

How many dumping and import taxes are imposed on solar PV?

Since 2011, the number of antidumping, countervailing and import duties levied against parts of the solar PV supply chain has increased from just 1 import tax to 16 duties and import taxes, with 8 additional policies under consideration. Altogether, these measures cover 15% of global demand outside of China.

Photovoltaic panels to be exported by 2025